Outlook on the global EV conversion kits components market
Compared with the ups and downs of the overall commercial vehicle market in the past two years, the global electric commercial vehicle has entered the fast lane of growth; and will continue to maintain rapid growth in the next 10-15 years.
Electric commercial vehicles have been in the market introduction period in the past three to five years, and will enter the high-speed growth period from 2025 to 2030. Sales have continued to grow, and the penetration rate of electric models has increased significantly. It is expected that global electric commercial vehicle sales will reach 9.6 million units in 2030, and the penetration rate of electric models will increase to about 45%; by around 2035, the market will gradually enter the mature stage, and 75% of commercial vehicle sales will be composed of electric models. The countries where electric commercial vehicles are sold are relatively concentrated, and the sales in the top five countries in 2023 account for more than 2/3; China and the United States are undoubtedly the two largest markets in the world, and the dominant position of the two countries will not be shaken in the future. On the one hand, the commercial vehicle market of the two countries is large, and the promotion of electric is also at the forefront of the world; the other top five countries are France, Japan and Germany; by 2030, India is expected to become the world's third largest electric commercial vehicle market.
light trucks are the main type, and medium and heavy trucks have the highest growth rate
Due to the different properties and application scenarios of passenger and freight vehicles, electrification has been promoted first in the field of buses (especially buses). At present, the electrification rate of buses is much higher than that of trucks. However, due to the limited overall market size of buses, as trucks continue to move towards electrification, the sales share of buses in electric commercial vehicles will continue to shrink, and it is expected to remain at around 2% around 2030. Light trucks will always be the main model of electric commercial vehicles. In addition to the large size of the light vehicle market itself, the operation of urban logistics vehicles and supporting infrastructure are more suitable for electrification. In certain commercial scenarios, the TCO of pure electric light trucks has certain advantages over fuel vehicles. However, although the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks is currently small, the expected growth rate is the highest. The annual compound growth rate from 2022 to 2035 is expected to reach 36%, and the global sales volume will exceed one million vehicles around 2030.
pure electric mainstream, medium and heavy trucks may release the application potential of hydrogen fuel cells
Pure electric is the main power route for electric commercial vehicles. Looking further into the subdivided models, light trucks account for more than 80% of the sales of pure electric commercial vehicles. In the hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy trucks are the main application models.
The market opportunities for ev conversion kits components of electric commercial vehicles are hidden, and the market size in the Americas is the largest
With the increase in sales of electric vehicles, the related parts market has ushered in huge market opportunities. In 2023, the global market size of ev electric conversion kits components for electric commercial vehicles will increase by 72% from 2022 to US$43.4 billion. By 2035, the market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 20%. In terms of regions, although the sales volume in the Asia-Pacific market is the largest, due to the fact that the prices of components (especially in the Chinese market) are much lower than those in the European and American markets, in 2023, the Americas will be the world's largest market for ev conversion kits components for electric commercial vehicles, accounting for 48% of the total global market sales, and it is expected that the proportion will further expand in the next few years and remain above 50%.
Battery system accounts for the highest proportion, and hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen storage systems have the fastest growth rate
Power battery systems (including BMS, thermal management) are the products with the largest sales volume among all parts, accounting for about 64% of global total sales in 2023. Even though the proportion of power battery systems is expected to decline slightly in the next few years due to the continuous decline in battery costs and the promotion and application of fuel cell vehicles, power batteries will still be the largest truck ev conversion kits component product market by 2030, accounting for 58% of the global market.At present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still in the demonstration and promotion stage, and the sales of supporting hydrogen fuel cells and on-board hydrogen storage systems are limited. However, with the promotion of the application of fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and on-board hydrogen storage systems are expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 56% during 2022-2030, which is higher than other parts.
Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals, with the rise of the electrification wave of commercial vehicles, electric bus conversion kits are also undergoing major changes in products, technologies and markets.
