With the rise of EVs, the upgrade of commercial EV conversion kit has entered the fast lane
As the problem of global warming becomes increasingly serious, various industries are exploring the path of green and sustainable development. The application of AEAUTO EV conversion kit will be imminent, and the commercial vehicle market is brewing huge changes.
The trend of electronic control of power transmission system brings about the explosion of demand for "autonomy and controllability"
The diesel engine electric control system is mainly composed of three parts: sensor, actuator and electronic control module (ECU).
In the field of AMT gearboxes, Europe and the United States are undoubtedly at the forefront. The market share in Europe and the United States and China has formed two completely different pictures. At present, the AMT market share of heavy-duty commercial vehicles in Europe is about 90%, and the market share in the United States is 85%; looking back at the domestic market, in 2020, the penetration rate of AMT gearbox heavy-duty trucks in my country was only 5%. As the domestic pursuit of driving comfort, reliability and intelligence has also increased, the demand for AMT heavy-duty trucks has begun to increase significantly, and it is estimated that the penetration rate will reach 52% by 2025.
The trend of low carbonization and electrification is reshaping the commercial vehicle industry, and new energy commercial vehicles have become a new blue ocean
From the perspective of global industry development, under the influence of global economic fluctuations, the COVID-19 pandemic, chip shortages, etc., the global commercial vehicle market has experienced certain fluctuations between 2017 and 2021. It has now entered a new normal for global automobiles. The overall trend in the future is positive and will continue to grow.
Starting from 2022, the light commercial vehicle and medium and heavy commercial vehicle markets will rebound to a certain extent globally, and the commercial vehicle market will not become a market that simply pursues total volume .
Chart: Global Commercial Vehicle Sales
China's commercial vehicle market data in 2022 showed a "cold and hot" phenomenon. The cold thing was that the overall sales data of the commercial vehicle market was not ideal, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2% to only 3.3 million vehicles; the hot thing was that the sales of new energy commercial vehicles rose against the trend, a year-on-year increase of 79% to 338,000 vehicles.
The sudden explosion of new energy commercial vehicles is due to three factors, in addition to the stimulation of road rights policies in various places and the increased market recognition of new energy products:
First, the economic efficiency is improved, and the TCO cost advantage of electric commercial vehicles is gradually enlarged.
As means of production, commercial vehicles have very high operating costs. With the maturity of autonomous driving technology, the improvement of energy replenishment infrastructure, the reduction of related battery costs, and the improvement of battery energy density, new energy and intelligent commercial vehicles will significantly reduce operating costs during operation (such as saving fuel costs, better routes, etc.). In general, the longer the car is used, the lower the marginal cost. For example, for heavy trucks, China expects that the TCO of pure electric heavy trucks will be on par with diesel heavy trucks in 2023. In the long run, after 2030, whether in the European and American markets or the Chinese market, the cost advantages of various new energy heavy trucks will be significantly better than traditional diesel heavy trucks.
Chart: TCO development trend of different types of heavy trucks in China and the United States
Second, under the “dual carbon” goal, carbon reduction in the transportation sector has become a consensus, the new energy bus market has gradually become saturated, the new energy transformation of trucks is continuing, and engineering vehicles have also joined the ranks of electrification.
The carbon reduction requirements will be transmitted from the logistics industry to the commercial vehicle industry. Commercial vehicles are the focus and difficulty of carbon emission reduction in the current automobile industry. Studies have found that the EU commercial vehicle ownership is about 5%, and its carbon emissions account for 40%. As the country puts forward higher carbon reduction and decarbonization requirements for heavily polluting and heavily emitting industries and regions, new energy has become the only way for industries such as steel, aluminum, and ports. Leading logistics companies are also actively proposing decarbonization and carbon reduction targets, and at the same time, carbon reduction measures are implemented through specific measures such as the procurement of new energy vehicles and on-site infrastructure.
Third, with further breakthroughs in core technologies such as new power systems and intelligent networking, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to grow rapidly.
In response to the expectation of multiple energy forms running in parallel, most leading parts and OEMs are actively deploying core technologies of battery power and hydrogen fuel cells. The United States, Europe, and China are at the forefront of applying these new technologies, and the difference in application rates depends on regional markets, vehicle models, uses, etc., especially the diversification of scenarios.
United States: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 25% in 2030, which is lower than the expected proportion in other major markets, mainly affected by the sales of heavy trucks. Given that the United States is sparsely populated and has long transportation distances, it will take longer for new power systems to be widely used in heavy trucks. In contrast, new energy vehicle sales account for the largest proportion of light commercial vehicles in cities, accounting for 36% of the total sales of light commercial vehicles. Among them, battery power systems will account for the largest proportion of new energy vehicle sales, and pure electric vehicles will also lead the sales of electric vehicles, including light commercial vehicles for inter-city transportation and medium trucks for urban transportation.
Chart: Forecast of conversion kit application rate in the United States
Europe: Electric vehicle sales in Europe account for 31% of total sales, higher than the United States but slightly lower than China. Similar to the United States, most electric vehicles sold in Europe are light commercial vehicles used in urban areas, accounting for 46% of total sales, of which pure electric vehicles account for 40%.
Chart: Forecast of conversion kit application rate in Europe
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China: With the trend of low carbonization and electrification, electric commercial vehicles have entered an irreversible fast lane, and the market prospects are huge. By 2030, China's EVs sales will be slightly higher than Europe, accounting for 33% of the total sales of commercial vehicles. Thanks to policy support, many battery manufacturers have risen. As a landmark model of commercial vehicles, the electric rate of heavy trucks largely reflects the progress of electric commercial vehicles. The sales of new energy heavy trucks will continue to increase in the next three years, and the new energy penetration rate is expected to exceed 30% in 2030.
Chart: Forecast of conversion kit application rate in China
In Europe and China, the application rate of electric conversion kit technologies in light commercial vehicles may be roughly the same, accounting for 1/3 of total sales. China and AEAUTO is far ahead in the application rate of new technologies in the medium-duty truck market, especially the heavy-duty truck market. The main reasons for China's faster popularization are: the road network is not as extensive, the population density is higher, and the government is driven by low-carbon goals such as reducing automobile emissions.
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